[c]AQaddafi likely to be killed, says former Pak envoy.

Seasoned diplomat Shahid M. Amin has said that in all likelihood the Libyan dictator Maummar Muhammad al-Qaddafi, who has been ruling his country since 1969 through sheer force, will continue to resist people's upsurge but will be killed.

"In my opinion fighting in Libya will continue; will become very nasty but in the last Qaddafi will be killed," Amin predicted.

He made the observation while delivering a lecture at Pakistan Institute of International Affairs (PIIA) on "Egyptian Revolution and Beyond" Friday evening. Amin has been Pakistan's ambassador to Egypt and many other countries.

"People by and large hated the regime; they just not disliked him," Amin said referring to Qaddafi. "He has some support but he has been absolutely cruel," he observed. "He is totally isolated in the international community," the ex-Pakistan ambassador said.

The topic of his discourse, he said, has generated speculation. "What we are witnessing today in the Middle East is a historic moment." The role of Internet and even indigenous methods of communication has played a vital role in what one was witnessing in the Middle East, he added.

"This is a revolution of the 21st century," he said referring to Egypt.

He said Arab countries are spread over a large area and one should not generalise. "Firstly, they were divided in monarchies, some exposed to western democracies. Some of them had cruel system, some less cruel but all are oppressive," he observed.

In Egypt, he said, there were certainly many economic grievances and it was true that Mubarak's regime did make some progress but it was not up to the expectations. The rising food crisis during the last two to three years also generated frustration, he said.

"That anger is also reflected," he said.

Tunisia started heating up in 2010 until its president was forced to leave, he added.

Egypt has the largest population in the Arab world; it is "pivotal" in the Arab world, Amin said. "The Egyptian army is very popular institution because it has fought against Israel," he said. The Egyptian army gave a signal that it would not be involved although it did lend a helping hand to Mubarak, he added.

"Let us not forget that it is the armed forces that are holding power in Egypt," he said. "We must recognise that Egypt is changing."

Amin said the Egyptian demonstrators have shown the capacity to again come on the streets. He said the demonstrators didn't go for rampage and Islamic extremism led by Akhwan-ul-Muslameen was rejected.

The elite in Egypt, he said, was westernised and has a secular tradition. The armed forces have also made it clear that pacts with Israel and other states would be respected. Therefore, he said, he doubted if there would be any change in foreign policy towards Israel and other western states.

Saudia Arabia was a very important country from Pakistan's perspective, Amin said, adding, women might get the right to vote but people there were contended.

"I would say Saudi Arabia is unlikely to have demonstrations and that is a good omen for Pakistan,"

Dr Shahid Hasan Siddiqui, Chairman, Research Institute of Islamic Banking and Finance, dealt with the topic "What consequences will arise from Egyptian Revolution". He said he didn't think developments that were taking place in Egypt could be termed as revolution. During the 18 days of uprising the Egyptian leadership was in constant touch with western governments,

he said.

He said that both Egyptian and Pakistani leadership were pro-United States, adding, the US has lost its war in Afghanistan and the "war on terror" was essentially meant to have access to energy resources.

But there was a difference between Egypt and Pakistan. While Pakistan allocated only 2.3 per cent of its budget on education, Egypt spent 4.2 per cent of its budget in the realm of education. In health sector, Pakistan spent merely 0.4 per cent as compared to Egypt that spent 2.3 per cent, almost five times on health.

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